In many organizations, problems are treated as if they were technical tasks. Something to be analyzed, planned and then solved. But more and more of the issues we face do not work that way. Climate change. Integration. Energy transformation. Health issues. Digitalization of the public sector.
These issues do not behave like machines that can be repaired. They behave more like ecosystems. They change when we try to influence them. They contain many actors with different goals. They often lack clear cause and effect relationships.
It is precisely for such situations that the SCoG complexity model was developed.
The model has been developed by the Stockholm Center of Governance to help organizations understand and work with complex societal challenges. It provides a language and a way of thinking to understand why certain problems cannot be solved with traditional governance and why new forms of innovation and collaboration are needed.
Why the SCoG model is needed
Many management models assume that problems can be analyzed and broken down until the solution becomes clear. It works well for simple or technically complex problems.
But complex societal challenges work differently. They often lack clear cause-and-effect relationships and change at the same time as we try to influence them. This means that we cannot know in advance exactly which solution will work.
Instead, we need to work more experimentally, more collaboratively and more systemically. SCoG’s complexity model helps us understand when we find ourselves in such a situation.
The two dimensions of complexity
The core of the model is that complexity is not just about how difficult a problem is.
It deals with two different types of complexity.
- The first is thematic complexity. It deals with the issue or problem itself. Whether we really understand what the problem is and why it arises.
- The second is organizational complexity. It deals with how many actors are involved and how their responsibilities and mandates are distributed.
When both of these dimensions are high, we get what is often called a complex societal challenge. This is when traditional organizational structures start to have difficulty managing the situation.
Four types of problems
When combining thematic and organizational complexity, different types of problems arise.
- Some issues are relatively simple. The problem is clear and the solution can be implemented within an organization.
- Others are complicated but still manageable through expertise. Building a bridge or developing a new engine requires specialist knowledge, but the system is still quite controllable.
- Then there are those problems where the issue itself is difficult to define. The climate issue is an example. We know a lot about the causes, but the consequences and solutions are complex.
- The most challenging situation arises when both thematic and organizational complexity are high.
This is when many actors need to collaborate on an issue that no one fully understands. This is where system innovation is needed.
The difference from other complexity models
There are several models that try to describe complexity. For example, Cynefin is one of the best known and focuses on how decisions should be made depending on the nature of the problem.
SCoG’s model instead focuses on how complexity arises in social systems. It makes it clear that complex problems often arise when two things coincide. We do not really understand the problem and at the same time many organizations are responsible for different parts of the solution. This makes the model particularly useful in the public sector and in major societal issues.
Why the model is important for systems innovation
Systems innovation is about changing entire systems rather than individual products or services. This almost always means that many organizations have to work together.
A systems innovation leader therefore needs to be able to understand the type of complexity that exists in a problem. If the complexity is primarily thematic, more knowledge development and experimentation are needed. If it is primarily organizational, new forms of collaboration and governance are needed. If both are high, a combination of experimentation, policy development and collaboration platforms are needed.
SCoG’s model helps to identify this.
How a systems innovation leader can use the model
A systems innovation leader can use the model as an initial analysis tool.
When a new challenge arises, you can ask a few simple questions.
- How well do we understand the problem itself?
- How many organizations are affected or affected by the issue?
- Does any individual actor have a mandate to implement the solution?
When the answers point to high complexity, you know that traditional project models are not enough. Instead, you need to create collaboration platforms, experimental projects and learning processes. The model also helps to explain to decision-makers why certain issues cannot be solved quickly.
Examples where the model is used
SCoG’s complexity model has been used, among other things, in analyses of mission-oriented innovation and in programs to address complex societal challenges. In work on climate innovation and sustainable urban development, the model is used to understand why individual organizations cannot solve problems on their own.
It is also used in innovation programs and knowledge compilations on system innovation where it serves as a tool for analyzing how complex challenges should be organized.
In practice, this often means creating new types of collaborative structures between authorities, companies, researchers and civil society.
How to do it
1. Map the system (Identify the whole)
- Start by defining the boundaries of the system and draw a system map. Identify the most important parts (actors, environmental factors, economic drivers) and how they are interconnected.
- Understand that changes in one part affect other parts (e.g. biodiversity or social acceptance).
2. Analyze influencing factors (+/-)
- Use a causal loop analysis to illustrate the interaction.
- (+): More of X gives more of Y (e.g. more of X gives more biodiversity).
- (-): More of X gives less of Y (e.g. higher X may give less species richness).
- This helps to see unexpected consequences of different actions.
3. Manage uncertainty and dynamics
- Complex systems are not static, they change over time. The model encourages working with scenarios rather than fixed forecasts.
- Be prepared that what worked before may not necessarily work now due to changed circumstances.
4. Involve stakeholders (The social perspective)
- The model requires involving a wide range of stakeholders with different perspectives
- Use dialogue as a method to understand different values and goals.
5. Apply “living” strategies
- A complexity model is not a document you produce once and then put in a desk drawer. It is a living product that must be updated continuously.
- Use the model to test prototypes for new types of value chains and adjust as new knowledge is gained.
Like an orchestra
One way to understand the model is to think of an orchestra. If the problem is simple, one musician can play the piece himself. If the problem is complex, several skilled musicians are needed, but the notes are still clear.
But if the piece is improvised and the orchestra consists of musicians from different traditions, the situation becomes more complex. Then notes are not enough. You need a conductor, sensitivity and a common rhythm. This is roughly how system innovation works.
From control to collaboration
Perhaps the most important insight in SCoG’s complexity model is that some problems cannot be controlled. They must be managed through collaboration, learning and experimentation.
When we accept this, we can begin to design organizations and processes that are better suited to complex challenges.
This is where the model becomes most valuable. It helps us understand when we need to stop trying to control the system and start working with it. And that is often where real innovation begins.
