Innovation is often portrayed as a question of ideas. If we just get the right idea, success will come. But the likelihood of success with innovation is more about courage, resources and ambition than about individual ideas. In fact, it is precisely the combination of these factors that determines the kind of results we can expect.
When courage meets resources
We can imagine a quadrilateral with two axes. On one axis we have the degree of courage, from cowardice to boldness. On the other axis resources, from scarce to extensive. In the lower left corner we find the cowardly and resource-poor innovation project. Here there are small improvements, and the probability of success is relatively high, but the result is marginal.
In the upper right corner is the bold project with access to extensive resources. Here there are conditions for real breakthrough innovation. The probability of failure is still present, but the successful ventures tend to change the entire playing field. It is in this field that we find the Apollo program, the development of the internet or the vaccine breakthrough.
The dangerous middle
The problem arises in the middle field, where ambition is high but courage or resources are half-hearted. This is where many companies end up. They are attracted by the vision of breakthrough, but do not dare to invest fully or do not create the processes required. They contribute a little extra resources but maintain a controlling, defensive process. The result is often unsuccessful ventures with low returns. This is precisely where the probability of success is the lowest.
The process that changes everything
However, there is one variable that can shift the probability in a positive direction: the process. A cowardly process kills even bold ideas. A courageous process, on the other hand, can transform even a resource-poor project into something successful. It is not just about building project management, but about creating a creative process with a height for learning and inspiration. Including iterations, allowing failures and building in moments for reflection and knowledge transfer.
A company that invests in developing its process for ideation, prototyping and testing increases its chances significantly. This makes it possible for the will to penetrate even in challenging conditions. The process becomes a catalyst that increases both courage and the ability to use resources in the right way.
A model for probability in innovation
We can think of the probability of success as a function of three factors: courage, resources and process. If one of these three is low, it drags down the total. A courageous project without resources risks burning out. A resourceful project without courage gets stuck in incrementalism. A courageous and resourceful venture without a process becomes chaotic. But when all three are connected, something that can be called an innovation sweet spot arises.
Daring with reflection
The important thing is not to always aim for breakthrough. The important thing is to understand what type of innovation you are striving for, to be honest about the resources you are actually prepared to invest and to build a process that carries both when things are going well and when things get tough. The biggest risk is not to fail, but to get stuck in the middle, with too high ambitions but without the necessary power.
The probability of success
The probability of success with innovation is never one hundred percent. But it is not random either. Courage, resources and process are key factors that can be weighed and adjusted. This also means that failures are often not about the quality of the ideas, but about the lack of balance between these three. The organization that dares to be brave, puts sufficient resources behind its ambitions and invests in a learning and creative process is also the one that creates the innovations that really make a difference.
