We live in a time where we are constantly trying to understand what awaits around the corner. The pace of change is high, and what we build today often has to withstand what we do not yet know. In future-oriented work, scenario planning has therefore become an increasingly important method. By creating different possible futures, scenarios, we try to navigate uncertainty. But many who work with future issues recognize the frustration: scenarios are questioned, judged as unrealistic or dismissed as “science fiction”.
But what happens if we turn it around?
What happens if we consciously step into the form of fiction, where the world does not yet have to be true but rather well-thought-out, coherent and emotionally credible?
Scenario planning and fiction are two sides of the same future coin
Scenario planning is about imagining alternative futures, based on the trends, uncertainties and driving forces we see in the present. They are not predictions, they are tools for thinking more broadly, discovering possible consequences and making more robust decisions.
Fiction, on the other hand, is a narrative genre. It builds entire worlds, relationships and plots. What distinguishes it from traditional scenario planning is not that it is frivolous but that it protects itself from being technically scrutinized, since it is a story rather than an analysis.
And precisely because of this, fiction has a power that future scenarios often lack: it allows for experience and empathy. A reader or listener can step into the future, feel how it tastes, smells and affects everyday life. What otherwise risks becoming a PowerPoint with trends and bars now becomes a living reality in someone else’s eyes.
Stories invite rather than exclude
When we present a future scenario as a basis with assumptions and numbers, it is easy for others to adopt a critical approach. It sounds something like this:
“That doesn’t sound reasonable, we’ve tried similar things before and they didn’t work.”
“It’s way too expensive, so customers will never agree to it.”
“We don’t even know how the technology will develop.”
But if we instead tell a future as a fictional story, something else happens. It arouses curiosity:
“Hm, interesting… What if it really turned out like that?”
“I recognize myself in the main character, I would probably have made the same choice.”
“If that’s possible, what would it require of us right now?”
Fiction does not build a future to convince. It builds a future to enable dialogue.
An example: Radical circularity as a scenario and as fiction
Scenario formulation (future analysis):
In 2038, Sweden has implemented a system-wide reform that has eliminated linear resource use in society. All products are designed for reuse, material tracking is mandatory, and each industrial actor is legally responsible for the entire life cycle of the resource. The new model is based on an ecosystem of collaboration rather than competition, where the return of materials is a new basis for innovation.
Now ask yourself the question “Is this possible?”
Fiction (narrative form):
Malin squints at the spring sun reflected in the facade of the recycled office building. Her jacket, made from textile that previously covered train seats, has just been repaired in the vending machine on the corner. She opens her app and receives confirmation, 37 kilos of material have been saved in her household in the past month. Since the children started school in the circular learning environments, they no longer talk about buying new, but about building on. Malin remembers when it was status to have the latest mobile phone, but now it is status to be able to show how many generations your gadgets have survived.
Now ask yourself the question again “Is this possible?”
From scenario to fiction, a simple method
Transforming a scenario into fiction is about giving space to life. Here is a simple process:
- Choose a future scenario you want to investigate. It can be an internal analysis basis, a future trend or a visionary goal.
- Choose a person or role that lives in this scenario. It can be a user, citizen, worker or leader.
- Write a paragraph from their everyday life. What do they do? What do they think? What has changed compared to today?
- Invite reflection: What in the story feels believable? What feels hard to imagine? What would have to happen right now for this to become reality?
The question that concludes the process is the key:
“If this were not fiction, what would it mean then?”
It opens the door to action.
A new future begins with a new story
When we use fiction as a tool in future and innovation processes, the focus shifts from defense to understanding. We create a space where ideas can be experienced, where complexity can be explained without being simplified, and where more people can feel involved in shaping the future.
It’s not a way to avoid reality. It’s a way to challenge reality to change, one story at a time.
