In an era of increasing complexity and global crises, we are faced with systems that no longer deliver what they were once intended to do. Inequality, climate change, ill health and resource overuse are not problems with simple solutions. They are symptoms of deeper structures in our social and production systems.
To meet these challenges, it is not enough to optimize the old, we must fundamentally transform the systems.
But how do you change a system? And how do you engage many people in that change?
Three methods have proven particularly powerful in the work with systems innovation:
Three Horizons, Systems Mapping and the Iceberg Method.
Why are systems innovation tools needed?
Systems change requires more than good intentions. It requires:
- A shared picture of the current situation and its causes
- A vision of a better future
- An understanding of the forces that keep the system stuck in old patterns
- A space to experiment with new ways forward
- Opportunities to engage many different stakeholders in a collaborative process
This is where the methods come in, not as ready-made answers, but as conversation tools, thinking tools and collaboration platforms.
Three Horizons – Navigating between now and the future
The Three Horizons model helps us think strategically over time. It divides system change into three simultaneous horizons:
- Horizon 1: The current system, what we recognize, but which is becoming inadequate.
- Horizon 2: The innovation zone where experiments and conflicts between new and old arise.
- Horizon 3: The system of the future, a visionary direction for how we want it to work.
The model shows that we must work with all three horizons simultaneously. We cannot just plan for the future without understanding the present, and we cannot change the present without having a goal. It is also a way to include different actors. Some are better at managing the present, others at creating something new.
Understanding the whole and the relationships
Systems Mapping is used to make visible the relationships between actors, driving forces, obstacles and flows in a system. The mapping shows not only what is in the system, but how it is connected.
It makes it easier to:
- Identify the structure and bottlenecks of the system
- See the dynamics over time
- Get different actors to agree on a common picture
The mapping is not the end goal, it is the conversation around the map that creates learning, understanding and collaboration.
Iceberg Method – Going below the surface
The Iceberg Method is a powerful analysis tool that helps us see beyond the visible events and understand the deeper structures. It divides understanding into four levels:
- Events
What we see (e.g. high energy use in a city) - Patterns and trends
Recurring behaviors (e.g. increased urbanization) - System structure
Rules, incentives, institutions (e.g. building codes, fossil-dependent infrastructure) - Thought patterns
Norms, assumptions and worldview (e.g. growth = welfare)
Working with the Iceberg Method makes it possible to direct the change effort towards the deeper layer, where real system transformation takes shape.
How the methods interact
These three tools fulfill different but complementary functions in a system innovation process:
- The Iceberg Method helps us understand why the system is the way it is, its structure and cultural norms.
- Systems Mapping gives us a visual model of how different parts and relationships work right now.
- Three Horizons helps us think long-term and strategically over time, from the current situation to the desired future system.
Together they create a framework for both understanding and change.
In what order should they be used?
A possible sequence looks like this:
- Iceberg Method
Start by digging deep: What is shaping the behavior we see? What values govern the system? - Systems Mapping
Move on to map out the relationships, actors and flows in the current situation. - Three Horizons
Then use the model to imagine ways forward and formulate a strategy for change.
It is not about following a linear process, you often go back and forth between the methods, because each method raises new insights.
Example
Sustainable urban development
A city wanted to increase its sustainability work, but encountered resistance and fragmentation between administrations, companies and citizens.
With the Iceberg Method, they began to explore why certain decisions always led to car-dependent solutions and realized that an underlying assumption was that the car is synonymous with freedom.
With Systems Mapping, actors, flows and obstacles were identified, for example, the school, the traffic office and property owners did not cooperate on school transport.
With Three Horizons, a vision of the future was created where the city had safe walking and cycling networks for children, new mobility solutions and coherent green areas. Horizon 2 became a test area for shared mobility in collaboration with citizens.
It became a joint effort towards a system change where more people could participate – from idea to practice.
System innovation requires cooperation and conversation tools
We cannot change systems without understanding them. We cannot understand them without talking about them. And we cannot talk about them if we do not have common tools to make them visible.
Three Horizons, Systems Mapping and the Iceberg Method are three such tools. Together they create powerful support for dialogue, reflection, strategy and action on complex issues.
In the work on sustainable development, climate change or social innovation, we will need more people who think systemically, more people who dare to challenge the established and more tools that make complexity understandable and participatory.
